Insights

The record in aggregate

3,023 decisions, 2005–2026. Every figure below is computed from the extracted record — no estimates.

75%first PSD already a yes · of 894 drugs ever recommended
11median months, first PSD → first yes · 217 multi-attempt drugs
200recommended after a no or deferral
178drugs whose latest decision is a no
Access morphology · the shape of a comeback

Most medicines that come back to the PBAC get through — one in three only after a “no.”

566 medicines with two or more PBAC submissions · the outcome at each attempt, aligned on the submission spine · public PSDs · script.report

Recommended Deferred Not recommended hover a row → open the medicine

One row per medicine, sorted into bands then by how many attempts it took. Each mark is one PBAC submission at that attempt number; the row runs as far as the journey went. Attempts are counted across indications, so a drug that returned for many tumour types shows a long row (pembrolizumab spans dozens — journeys past 16 attempts are trimmed at the right); listing dates are not shown. 452 of 566 (80%) end on a yes; 515 (91%) got a yes at some point — only 51 never did. A "setback" is a later no (often a new indication), not a delisting.

The scissors

All blades, indexed · 2015 = 100
50 100 150 200 PBS spend, indexed to 2015 = 100 PBS spend 184 Scripts, indexed to 2015 = 100 Scripts 97 Decisions, indexed to 2015 = 100 Decisions 80 20152024

The subsidy bill climbs alone — script volumes and decisions per year sit where they started. The blades open.

Table view
YearPBS spend (indexed)Scripts (indexed)Decisions (indexed)
2015100100100
20161198790
20171158690
20181138796
201911988102
20201309184
20211379183
20221559580
20231679774
20241849780

Drug journeys through PBAC decisions

Four cuts of the same 1,057 drugs — stages, not a funnel
Faced the committee
1,057
distinct drugs in the record
Recommended first try
673
64% of drugs
Standing at a yes today
831
79% — incl. 200 that earned it after a no
Parked at a no / deferral
226
21% of drugs, as of their latest decision

Not nested: standing at a yes today (831) exceeds recommended first try (673), because 200 drugs were knocked back before they got through. Each row counts the same 1,057 drugs a different way, so the rows do not narrow and do not sum.

A recommendation still isn't a listing — 200 recommendations are currently in the waiting room, yes in hand, no PBS subsidy yet.

Months to a first yes

Median · first PSD → first recommendation · multi-attempt drugs
10 20 Median months by year 8 mo 20062026

Only drugs whose first public decision wasn't a yes. Months run from the drug's first PSD in the record to its first recommendation (drug level, all indications pooled), plotted by the year that recommendation landed. Years with fewer than 3 such drugs are hidden; visible years carry n = 5–16 drugs (each year's n in the table view). A recommendation is not yet a PBS listing.

Table view
YearMedian monthsn
2006811
2007811
20081014
200985
20121010
20131210
2014127
2015813
20161014
20171613
20181211
20191611
20202011
20211012
2022813
20231210
20241716
2025812
202687
More from the record — 5 further views

Decisions per year

PSDs published
100 200 2005: 76 decisions 2006: 153 decisions 2007: 156 decisions 2008: 98 decisions 2009: 78 decisions 2010: 116 decisions 2011: 87 decisions 2012: 131 decisions 2013: 98 decisions 2014: 149 decisions 2015: 194 decisions 2016: 175 decisions 2017: 174 decisions 2018: 187 decisions 2019: 198 decisions 198 2020: 162 decisions 2021: 161 decisions 2022: 156 decisions 2023: 144 decisions 2024: 156 decisions 2025: 156 decisions 2026: 47 decisions 200520102015202020252026
Table view
YearDecisions
200576
2006153
2007156
200898
200978
2010116
201187
2012131
201398
2014149
2015194
2016175
2017174
2018187
2019198
2020162
2021161
2022156
2023144
2024156
2025156
202647

PBS spend

$AUD billions per year
$10B $20B PBS spend by year $20.8B 20052025
Table view
YearSpend ($B)
20055.48
20065.61
20076.00
20086.43
20097.24
20107.65
20117.84
20128.71
20137.91
20149.54
201510.01
201611.94
201711.47
201811.30
201911.92
202013.05
202113.70
202215.52
202316.73
202418.39
202520.84

Spend per decision

$AUD millions of annual PBS spend per PBAC decision
$50M $100M $150M PBS spend per decision, by year $118M 20152024

The year's total subsidy bill divided by the decisions made that year — each decision now sits against $118M of annual spend, up from $52M in 2015. Decided submissions only; submissions received aren't public.

Table view
YearSpend ($B)Decisions$M per decision
201510.019452
201611.917568
201711.517466
201811.318760
201911.919860
202013.016281
202113.716185
202215.5156100
202316.7144116
202418.4156118

Therapy mix

Drugs per area, top 8
Oncology 163
Neurology 93
Endocrinology 87
Metabolic 86
Cardiovascular 67
Infectious disease 63
Vaccines 57
Haematology 56
Other 383
Every area — including what "Other" holds
Therapy areaDrugs
Oncology163
Neurology93
Endocrinology87
Metabolic86
Cardiovascular67
Infectious disease63
Vaccines57
Haematology56
Respiratory56
Rare disease39
Dermatology38
Ophthalmology37
Hepatology35
Pain32
Women's health31
Rheumatology25
Mental health23
Gastroenterology20
Other16
Immunology13
Urology6
Musculo-skeletal5
Diabetes2
Psychiatry2
Nephrology1
Addiction medicine1
Renal disease1

Areas come from the extraction; the indication taxonomy that would split the long tail further covers ~a third of the corpus so far — refining it is on the roadmap.

Revealed WTP

Stated ICERs on recommendations · 2015+ · $/QALY
<50k 23
50-75k 29
75-100k 9
100-150k 3
150-200k 1

Where the committee said yes and the ICER survived into the public record — 65 of 1,286 recommendations since 2015. The rest: 691 cost-minimisation (no ICER by design), 220 redacted, remainder not modelled. Full sliceable explorer (filters, RSA, quotes from the PSDs) lives in the toolkit workspace.

The other committee

MSAC · 334 published assessments · 562 applications on the register

Not every Australian access decision is a PBAC decision. The Medical Services Advisory Committee assesses medical services, diagnostics, blood products and codependent technologies — including every CAR-T and cell therapy. A medicine absent from the PBAC record may simply have gone here instead.

Outcomes
  • Supported 167
  • Not supported 118
  • Deferred / other 49

59% support rate across 285 decided assessments.

What it assesses
  • therapeutic procedure 134
  • genetic or genomic test 74
  • diagnostic test 64
  • medical device or prosthesis 25
  • imaging 24
  • screening program 9

In assessment now

48 applications not yet decided · 140 decided with no summary document published yet
AppService or technologyApplicantStage
1827 Testing for hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) to support the use of PBS subsidised bepirovirsen in people with chronic hepat Glaxosmithkline Australia Pty Ltd Pre-assessment
1826 N-Terminal-pro Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) testing to support management of patients with heart failure Roche Diagnostics Australia Pty Limited Pre-assessment
1825 Transcranial Doppler bubble test for patent foramen ovale Australian and New Zealand Stroke Organisation Ltd Pre-assessment
1823 177 Lutetium PSMA-617 for prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-positive, taxane-naïve patients with metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) Novartis Pharmaceuticals Australia Pty Limited Pre-assessment
1822 F-18 Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) for evaluation of complex infection Queensland X-Ray Pty Ltd Pre-assessment
1821 Testing for Chromogranin A in patients with neuroendocrine neoplasms The Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia Pre-assessment
1820 In situ hybridisation (ISH) testing of tumour tissue to detect viral genomes (EBV and HPV) The Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia Pre-assessment
1819 Lisocabtagene maraleucel (Breyanzi) for the treatment of large B-cell lymphoma Bristol-Myers Squibb Australia Pty Ltd Assessment

From the MSAC application register, which lists every application at every stage. This is the forward view: an application in assessment has no summary document, so it is invisible in the decision corpus above.

Earned their yes

No or deferral first, recommended later · 200 drugs · showing latest 12
DrugTherapyNo / deferredRecommendedAttempts
Nemolizumab Dermatology 2025 2026 2
Retifanlimab Oncology 2025 2026 4
Romidepsin Oncology 2017 2026 3
Tafasitamab Haematology 2025 2026 2
Tirzepatide Endocrinology 2025 2026 4
Tofersen Neurology 2025 2026 2
Vorasidenib Oncology 2025 2026 2
Encorafenib Oncology 2021 2025 3
Fedratinib Haematology 2025 2025 2
Fezolinetant Women's health 2025 2025 2
Futibatinib Oncology 2025 2025 2
Omaveloxolone Rare disease 2025 2025 2